Every so often I read a book which changes the way I look at things. "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell is one such book. Through anecdotes the reader is brought through a series of decisions and shown how decisions are made. The basic premise of the book is there are two levels of decision processing human use. There is a conscious and unconscious decision. More attention is placed on the unconscious decision. Some people will commonly call the unconscious decision ESP, Luck or Intuition. In some cases the person using their intuition is picking up on some unnoticed fact to make a judgement or decision.
More importantly, the book also shows how wrong choices can be made by not fully understanding what is being tested or how people make a decision. One of the most famous examples discussed in the book is Classic Coke. Other examples of poor testing leading to bad decisions are also shown. These include new product launches, how a war game functions and how the recording industry decides what we hear on the radio.
Another chapter in the book discusses how a little bit of information can be used to predict various outcomes. Typically when a patient enters an ER with heart symptoms they are subjected to a complete series of tests. However, it turns out there are a very small select number of tests which can predict the need to admit the patient or refer them for later out patient follow up. In another example the book discusses how researchers determined how likely a person will be sued based on a simple observation.
How does all this relate to Management Consulting? The first is to make sure the proper questions are being studied. Just as Coke relied upon the wrong test, it is easy for a consultant to look at the wrong data to make a decision. Next, there are times when there is too much information. All the excess information has clouded the real issues and more importantly caused the client to subsidize a useless study. Finally, some questions can be answered with very little information. There is no need to complete additional investigation.
